Correlation v. Causation

Posted on February 2, 2011 by sinyaw

“You are sick,” said my doctor after the annual physical, about 5 years ago. “You need to start taking this pill for the rest of your life.”

“But I don’t feel sick,” I said. The test report high-lighted my cholestrol level. Upon inspection, however, it was the same as last year, and the year before. In fact, my cholestrol level has not changed much for the past 10 years. How come I wasn’t sick last year?

It turned out CDC changed the guideline. With a stroke of pen, I was defined to be sick on high cholestrol. I could not help thinking there was a conspiracy. There are many cholestrol drugs commercials on TV. How can it be possible that half of a big country are sick of the same disease? Could it be possible that the drug industry colluded with the government to alter the guideline so that they can profit from selling drugs that we really don’t need?

Did the oil industry stopped the electric car projects so that they can enjoy higher gas prices? Did the weight-loss industry influenced surgeon general to declare BMI 25 to be “ideal weight” to make 80% of Americans over-weight so that they can sell various weight loss programs?

Hmm…. I am usually not a believer to those conspiracy theories. But this one got me.

You see, over-weight really is not a health problem. It may not look stylish or fashionable, but carrying several pounds around your waist does not make you less healthy. The main killers of modern society are smoking and sedetary lifestyle. Weight plays little role here.

Being fat really does not affect your health much, said this book. You see, obesity is only weakly correlated to many health problems. In fact, being slightly over-weight, as defined by the government, seems to make you live longer, happier, and richer. Extreme obesity does kill, but that’s really statistically too rare to worry about.

It is also futile. The majority of weight-losers gained all of them back and more. Somehow, we created a problem that is not solvable yet millions spend billions to try day after day, year after year. We, the American society, are perpetually trying to lose weight yet, on average, are getting heavier and living longer every year.

I, personally, knew several people who have slimmed down. They all have tremendous will power and discipline. This is probably why thinner people are generally richer. Thinness does not make people rich, the necessary determination and will power do.

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Does it really?

Posted on January 27, 2011 by sinyaw

Is recycling paper really more ecological? To recycle paper, used paper must go through some pretty intensive chemical processes that pollute heavily. In the meantime, people would plant less trees since demand decreases. Maybe the total number of trees would decrease if we recycle paper aggressively? Between the choices of planting trees, cutting down, and make them into new paper; versus not planting trees and recycle used paper, which one is better for the planet?

I heard that the majority of mink coats used fur harvested from farm minks that would have lived much more comfortable lives than their wild counter parts. If people stop buying mink coats, world mink population will decrease. I read that animal activists broke into a fur farm and released thousands of mink into the wild. Would those freed mink live longer or better?

By the way, if wearing mink coat is wrong, why are leather shoes OK?

Chinese use so, so many disposable chopsticks that trees and bamboos are planted just to make them. In a true sense, those trees and bamboos are farmed and no different than the vegetables and rice that people eat. They are natural, sustainable, and usually organic (it is too expensive not to be). The production process harmed no lives and does not pollute. What’s really wrong using them?

I get that waste is always wrong. It is not economical and usually not ecological. Other than that, was it scientifically established that Green is really better for Earth?

Actually, a geologist once told me, “Earth really does not care. Everything came from Earth and will return to her. Earth was here before Homo Sapiens, and will still be here long after.” So, it is not really saving Earth. Isn’t it?

Posted in Peek into my mind | 2 Comments

Innovator’s Solution

Posted on January 22, 2011 by sinyaw

Clayton Christensen’s book, in 2003, made the word disruptor into every managers’ vocabulary. Innovator’s Dilemma depicted the inability of a successful company to escape its own trap. The very things that made it successful are exactly the ones that will fail it. Since the company will be so well tuned to sustain its successful trajectory, all rational decisions and on-going optimizations will lead to its rigidity and eventual demise. That book gave thousands of smaller companies hope to win over the larger competitors: all they need to come up is a disruptor.

Honestly, for a couple of years, if you don’t utter the words disruption, disruptor, or disruptive technologies in an executive presentation, it is as if you picked the wrong dress code.

This is the, less popular, companion book. Many concepts are the same, but this one gave more details on how to attack with or defend against disruptions.

To summarize, Mr. Christensen presented two disruptive approaches:

  • When the current product or technology have over-served the customers, the value shifts to the component suppliers and the disruption will be the integrators of modular components. Think how Dell, Intel, and Microsoft disrupted IBM and DEC.
  • There are customers who cannot afford the standard products or technologies. In that case, an inferior offering can capture those non-consumers whose only other option is not having anything at all. This kind of disruption will gradually eat up the current leaders. Think Sony beating out vacuum tube stereo manufacturers.

I found the definition of capability interesting. Mr. Christensen defined it with three elements: resources, processes, and values. He observed that different companies have varied difficulty changing when their capability have different mixes.

At the end, I was less inspired than his first book. It is still a good refresher and thought provoker.

Posted in Books & Reviews, Management Thoughts | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Why Chinese Mothers Are Superior

Posted on January 18, 2011 by sinyaw

Wall Street Journal’s provocatively titled article stirred up such a storm. I got several direct emails and numerous forwards, one of them a comment from Melanie on my blog.

Most of my American friends asked, “Is it true? Did you bring up your kids that way?” For that, I forwarded the piece to my kids, “Did we?” Politely and diplomatically, they forwarded me other Chinese kids’ comments. So we have three sides on on this topic: American parents, Chinese parents, and Chinese kids. It is probably fair to say this is a raw subject that brings up intense emotions from all three sides.

If you are in a game of fierce competition and the outcome requires decades of preparation, what kind of coach do you want? One that you would hate for pushing you to the brink of collapse, or the one that becomes your friend? Well, it depends on how much you care about winning or losing.

It is with amusement that I read the comments from kids’ point of view. Many of them are highly successful yet bitter that they are nothing but trophy kids. They implied that their parents sacrificed their well-being for the trophy status, or, given a choice, they would rather not have those material successes.

But the decision is up to the coaches, not kids. Most Chinese parents do not expect their kids to like those decisions, but knew that they would understand.

Kids would face the same decision if they become parents. It does not matter how they will choose, they will understand the gravity of the choice. And that’s enough for me. Just wait.

Posted in China, Peek into my mind | 2 Comments

Studio Vino

Posted on January 12, 2011 by sinyaw

Where are the mysteries of wines? When I swirled it in the glass, held up the glass against the light, sip and tasted it. I didn’t really think about them. I have a general understanding on how wines are made, but, honestly, so are cattle are slaughtered or cakes are baked. I have no desire to be too involved with the production of any of them.

Then I came to this unique winery at a suburb of Phoenix, in a strip mall in the city of Tempe. There are no agricultural farm like building, rolling grapevines, rows of barrels in a dark and cool cave, or hours of driving through natural peace. It is a store next to supermarket and beauty supply. It is the only winery in Phoenix.

The owner imports grape juices, crushed and filtered, from Oregon or California in sealed plastic bags. She then mixes in other ingredients, like oak chips, into six-gallon jars. The jars sit on metal wire shelves for three to 12 months and the wine is considered made. She then bottle, label, cork, and sleeve them up, about 14 bottles, for about less than $300.

All of those, plus catered foods and light entertainment, are available from this so-called winery where wine making can be a party activities for amateurs like myself. What’s more fun than coming home with a bottle that you made yourself?

Except that they don’t taste that great. Guess either there are more mysteries to be unlocked, or those grapevines, barrels, and remote locations actually make a difference to the taste. Given the choice of making bad wines myself or buying good wines from a store, I would make the same choice as in beef and cakes.

Posted in Books & Reviews, Tour guides, Witness to my life | Leave a comment

Fee for Services

Posted on January 9, 2011 by sinyaw

The story began when she was 15. At that time, she has been bed ridden for six years. Summers were scorching hot and winters bitterly cold. The parents cannot afford the $1,500 operation that will close the hole in her belly. When she turned, part of her intestines would fall out from that hole. It was painful, infectious, and could grind the spirit of anyone, let alone a little girl.

When the story broke, the society and community opened their hearts and wallets. The hospital donated their services and the girl got the wish of her life. Too late. The hole has deteriorated beyond repair. She went home and soon died, of hopelessness.

The TV show a bone-thin girl that smiled sweetly and quietly. She stared with soulful eyes that brought tears to our eyes. We would have funded the whole operation on the spot. That program was aired several years ago, in China. It was about health-care reform.

By and large, China’s medical system is fee-for-services. Just about the first thing you do entering a hospital or clinic is settling your payments. You don’t see any doctor or receive any care before that. Rich people get first-class services, poor waited in the smelly hallways. Poor people die, rich live long and healthy. When I talked about the medical philosophy and laws in the US, that hospitals will treat people first and talk money later. They were flabbergasted. “You mean. The doctors knew that they may not get paid?” “Yes,” I replied. “The government will take care of it.”

This state of Arizona sure has taken some unusal and unpopular stances. Facing a $1 billion budget deficit, it decided to stop paying for several types of organ transplant, in addition to many other medical coverage reductions. If you cannot afford it, you don’t get organ transplant. Two already died and 97 may follow.

When we watched that TV program, we thought that Chinese girl would have lived a happy and healthy life had she were born in America. Her ailment would have been taken care of within weeks, if not days. She wouldn’t have suffered six years and died at the end. We would have seen a pair of innocent and naughty eyes, not ones from a tortured soul.

Only if she were born not in Arizona.

Posted in Peek into my mind | 3 Comments

eReader chosen

Posted on January 6, 2011 by sinyaw

A little more than a year ago, I said no to Kindle. At that time, I have a stack of books next to my bed. I wasn’t going to switch before finishing them. Many things changed in this industry this past year.

iPad disrupted the whole publishing industry and eReader business. It forced Amazon to raise eBook prices! It also forced Barnes and Noble, Border, Sony, and many more beefed up their offerings. Amazon reduced Kindle’s price and introduce the 3rd generation. On my many business trips, my age (sigh) exacerbated two problems with books.

On a airplane seat, I read with some difficulty. The dim or poorly aimed lights do not help my aging eyesight. I would sit uncomfortably to read. Secondly, the desire to travel lighter forced me to make hard choices to accommodate either the luggage space or the weight imposed on my shoulders.

This new Kindle is slightly bigger than a paperback and about half-an-inch thick. It weighs enough to feel the substance, but not too much to tax the holding hand. Unlike book, I don’t need to prop the pages open (I like reading with only one hand, twisting and extending my fingers to hold the open book.) Flipping the page is deftly done with one of my knuckles clicking a big button the side. (I practiced and experiment the best way to hold it.) The dictionary is built-in, so I don’t need to put the book down, fetch the dictionary, and come back to it. (I do that a lot.) The bookmark, highlight, and annotation are easy to use. I don’t need my usual pencil anymore and the notes are now legible.

Since now all books are the same font size, I picked one that is easy to my eyes. The reading surface is flat and smaller to find the light. The contrast is usually no worse, if better, than print. (I tried reading from my iPod Touch, it is really too small a surface. I have not read extensively on an iPad yet.)

Kindle is great as a single purpose device. It does not email, browse, play games, or even display in color. Whatever you fancy, there is no app for that. It does one thing: displaying text for books or other things sold from Amazon.com.

And it is $139. I am willing to experiment with that amount of money.

Posted in 100 Words, Books & Reviews | Tagged | 2 Comments

2010

Posted on December 30, 2010 by sinyaw

October 2009, I left Juniper Networks and joined Huawei. I expected some adjustments and thought I was older, wiser and mellower then. I was right only for one of the three. I learned a lot about Huawei and visited Shenzhen several times. It was a treat to reconnect with friends at that corner of the world and reacquainted Hong Kong. Then I left Huawei in March.

Did I take less risk? You kidding? I joined this smallish company at Seattle. Yep, that started the 6th move in five years. Again, we left a four-bedroom sub-urban house and began the city life in a two-bedroom apartment. Seattle’s summer was lovely. It did rain frequently, as rumored, but they were mostly light drizzles and not constantly. Sun came out in most days and we enjoyed exploring and experiencing Seattle.

In May, we went back to Taiwan together and met up old friends. It was a blast and too short. In July, we had a big family re-union in San Jose. It was the last BBQ in our beloved Walbrook house. The kids brought their spousal units (or would-be ones) and I felt blissfully old.

Later in July was the long-planned Yellowstone trip. We spent four days in that park and got very close to many Bison. As any good trips were, we felt we should come back again someday. Soon after we came back to Seattle, Michelle and Vincent came checking us up. We went to Mt. Rainier. It turned out to be a cloudy day so I told myself to come back again. Then came the event of the year: Amy’s wedding in September.

It was a beautiful wedding in San Diego in a golf resort. But it was also an outdoor wedding on a record hot day that suit was punishing. As always, it was a big family reunion and we caught up with many. At night, cousins and their partners had a Diablo party in Sara’s house. She was a good hostess and everyone had a great time. Yep, Diablo III is now an anticipating event. That will be a new exciting party. I was wondering if these kids will play Mahjongg together when they get older. Hmm…

Seattle’s summer ended with a vengeance: record cold and snow storm came in November. We, both kids, and Mike, had a white Thanksgiving that include the usual turkey, ham, all the trimmings. Right after, we took a trip back to Taiwan together. I had my business meetings and I-Woan met up friends. Christmas sneaked up right after we have rid the jet lag. Karen arrived via San Francisco where she attended a conference, Jennifer from LA directly.

Seattle felt like home after several times with the whole family together. Except for Monty, nothing slowed down even a bit. We still miss California, but lesser.

What to do in 2011? Hmm…

Posted in Witness to my life | 2 Comments

Crichton strikes again

Posted on December 23, 2010 by sinyaw

Several years ago, I met someone who read every word Crichton has written. I was taken aback by such a devoted fan. Michael Crichton is one of my favorite authors, but every words? Really? When I check against the list, I was surprised that how many I actually have read too.

Several weeks ago, I stood in front of the best seller rack at the Hudson at the Seattle Airport. I needed a book, any book, and I had 20 minutes or so before boarding. Mr. Crichton’s Pirate Latitudes jumped out. I have several hours to kill and none of the books on my reading list is available at this Hudson store. It is like grabbing a sequel DVD. It is a safe choice. I won’t be disappointed.

And I was not.

Crichton really writes movies: action movies. The scenes are vivid and plot twisting. The story has all the “guy” elements: treasure hunt, mission-impossible raid, sex, violence, men against nature, betrayal, revenge, and a bit politics. It is an exciting formulaic page turner. I do admire Michael Crichton’s professionalism. The 17th century Caribbean Jamaica came alive; I can hear Johnny Depp as I read the book.

As mastery and authentic Michael Crichton is, an epic novelist he is not. Do not look for deep characters, complex emotions, or some life-defining struggle. This is a well-made simple entertainment that will never enter the college literature classrooms. If you enjoy the Die Hard series, this is a book for you.

And don’t put it under the tree for your girl friend.

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Lost and Found

Posted on December 19, 2010 by sinyaw

This is a common tale but true.

There was a brief moment of panic and disbelief when I found no wallet in the familiar back pocket. (Most men habitually check their pockets. They pat for the keys, cell phone, wallet, or what-not with a routine.) A search yielded nothing. I approached the United Airline counter for help. This nice Japanese woman immediately went to the plane. Fifteen minutes later, she came back empty-handed. I went back waiting for my connecting flight, powerless and frustrated in Narita Airport.

Five hours later, I arrived Taipei with no money or credit what-so-ever. I considered my options:

  • I could call the credit card company and asked for emergency cash.
  • Maybe the hotel concierge will lend me some?
  • Do I know anyone in this city to borrow from?
  • Would someone from US wire me money at this hour?
  • Would my bank wire me some money?

In Taipei hotel room, I made a list of its contents: driver license, credit cards, insurance card, etc. Jet-lagged and sleep deprived, I started the tedious process of finding the phone numbers and reporting the lost. I stopped after three cards and went to sleep, depressed.

Losing several hundred dollars was the least of my concerns. I actually did not even know how many credit cards and debit cards were there. Although I am reasonably protected, canceling each of them will not be fun. I also needed to get a new driver’s license and other IDs. Worst, I faced the risk of becoming the next victim of identify theft. That experience can be hell and damages take years to repair.

Next day, I got this email message from my admin, “Someone called and claimed that he has your wallet. I think it is a fraud, but would check with you anyway. Did you lose it?” “Oh, YES!”

It turned out an Diana DeGette, US congress woman, found it in the seat pocket on her way from D.C. to Denver. She gave the wallet to a Tommy Walker, her assistant, who sent me back the wallet, well packed and with everything intact.

Yay. Happy ending. Next time, I will carry a spare credit card separately.

Posted in Management Thoughts | 1 Comment