Correlation v. Causation

“You are sick,” said my doctor after the annual physical, about 5 years ago. “You need to start taking this pill for the rest of your life.”

“But I don’t feel sick,” I said. The test report high-lighted my cholestrol level. Upon inspection, however, it was the same as last year, and the year before. In fact, my cholestrol level has not changed much for the past 10 years. How come I wasn’t sick last year?

It turned out CDC changed the guideline. With a stroke of pen, I was defined to be sick on high cholestrol. I could not help thinking there was a conspiracy. There are many cholestrol drugs commercials on TV. How can it be possible that half of a big country are sick of the same disease? Could it be possible that the drug industry colluded with the government to alter the guideline so that they can profit from selling drugs that we really don’t need?

Did the oil industry stopped the electric car projects so that they can enjoy higher gas prices? Did the weight-loss industry influenced surgeon general to declare BMI 25 to be “ideal weight” to make 80% of Americans over-weight so that they can sell various weight loss programs?

Hmm…. I am usually not a believer to those conspiracy theories. But this one got me.

You see, over-weight really is not a health problem. It may not look stylish or fashionable, but carrying several pounds around your waist does not make you less healthy. The main killers of modern society are smoking and sedetary lifestyle. Weight plays little role here.

Being fat really does not affect your health much, said this book. You see, obesity is only weakly correlated to many health problems. In fact, being slightly over-weight, as defined by the government, seems to make you live longer, happier, and richer. Extreme obesity does kill, but that’s really statistically too rare to worry about.

It is also futile. The majority of weight-losers gained all of them back and more. Somehow, we created a problem that is not solvable yet millions spend billions to try day after day, year after year. We, the American society, are perpetually trying to lose weight yet, on average, are getting heavier and living longer every year.

I, personally, knew several people who have slimmed down. They all have tremendous will power and discipline. This is probably why thinner people are generally richer. Thinness does not make people rich, the necessary determination and will power do.

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