Insight and Strategy

In the formative years of my managerial career, I ate books to facilate growth. It became a habit. Later, I would pick up books from airports or lists from New York Times or Wall Street Journal. For years, managerial books are the only non-fiction I read.

Two books, I tried to memorize them: I-Jing and SunTzu.

I-Jing, in its entirety, has less than 7,000 words. SunTzu is just a bit longer, less than 8,000 words. Both can be printed on 8 pages of letter-size, in succinct Chinese, of course. English is voluminous.

I-Jing explains life with 64 cases. When I have a moment to reflect my life, I pick a random case and frequently fell into a trance thinking the relavance to whatever happening to myself at the time.

SunTzu offers 13 strategic considerations on how to win a war, any war. To me, these two books form the foundation of life. I-Jing gives me insight on goals and SunTzu offers the strategies to obtain them. I read many on similar topics, none topped these two. Both books were written thousands years ago and are part of the Chinese heritageous wisdom. The translation works are all painful to read, and, again, so voluminous.

Thank you, Darrin, for the classically bound copy and the humourous Stanley Bing version.

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Turning around for 22 millions people

According to The Economist, Taiwan forecast 2009 GDP to shrink by 3.5%. Across the strait, China predicted a much reduced growth of 6%, highest on the chart, seconded by India’s 5%.

The media has been fixated on the trial of Mr. CHEN Shui-Bian: the former president indicted for corruption, massive embezzlement, and money laundering. He foolhardily refused to capitalize on China’s amazing growth during his 8 years of presidency. Alas, Taiwan is arguably best positioned: it has sufficient capital, advanced industrial managerial talents, the same language and heritage, and the memory of how to best manufacture in the world.

The new president, Mr. MA Ying-Jeou, won the election largely on the economic platform. He made good with one of his campaign promises to open the island for direct flights to major China cities: Beijing, Shanghai, ShenZhen, etc. He also opened Taiwan for China tourists and other activities. Those measures should help, but matter little to the GDP.

Many optimists hope for a transformation, from an export- to service-based economy. Taiwan has long lost its labor costs competitiveness. It wishes to become the equivalent of silicon valley, only larger, that offers diversified design expertise: electronics, industry design, pharmaceutical, life-science, or even software. “We have talents and the resolute,” claimed these hopeful people.

Japan and Singapore were hopeful too. Vietnam and parts of China are aiming for the same goals. Good old original silicon valley is holding on to the reign real tight. Talents and will power are not enough to achieve the goal. There must be long-term programs, focused funding, and a few good people at the top driving it.

The island is still mired in internal politics, like Japan. Guess it is not surprising that Japan is also contracting by 3.2%.

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On Writing

On Writing: A Memoir of the Craft

Stephen King

ISBN-13: 978-0743455961
Publisher: Pocket (July 1, 2002)

I was a big fan: Salem’s Lot, Cujo, The Dead Zone, Firestarter, Tommy Knockers, Pet Sematary, The Shining. Then I stopped reading Stephen King. Somehow, Dreamcatcher was not scary or suspenseful. From a Buick 8 was my last Stephen King. I owned two Buicks and the title hooked me. When I put it down, I sighed. Either he has become too wealthy or I am now old and calloused. I have definitively grew out of Stephen King. In fact, I have read less and less fictions over the year. So it is probably me.

Claire reminded me about this book. It has been on my list for the longest. I picked it up years ago, read the preface, and did not bite. I wanted to write, but life placed it at a lower priority. I read Strunk and White all the time, but a book on fiction writing can wait. Then Claire started her book, quoting Stephen King all the time.

Stephen King was practical. If you want to write professionally, you need to work hard for it. For beginners, that this book aimed for, it means reading as much as writing. I am glad that he revered Strunk and White.

I remembered my youth days when I wrote short stories and submitted them to newspapers and magazines. My collection of rejection slips are long buried. Stephen King gave me back that aspiration. Well, it never hurts to get a bit more alive. Right?

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RIF vs. Global Engineering

The economy is bad. Your company considers a reduction-in-force (RIF). Geographically, how to do it?

Sort sale regions by anticipated rebound speed. Infra-structure and employees spin up slowly. If a company’s capacity is not ready, it will miss the rebound, a one-time chance.

Middle managers instinctively protect home-base and therefore RIF evenly, like peanut-butter. The economy, however, never recovered evenly. Peanut-buttered previously, the company is ill prepared for the faster regions and wastes capacity elsewhere. Darwinian result ensues; wrong decision leads to non-competitiveness.

If your company did it wrong, seek employment elsewhere. You will have to in several years.

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裁

别急着找工!东家把你给裁了,依法有遣散费,总有几个月的钱。先定下心,想想。谋定而后动。

想不想创业?农牧,医疗,教育.这三块大有前途.你有没有个独到的先机(每个人都有,要去想).

不知道?没关系.够年轻的话,考虑去念个书.国外的最好,国内的也行.

还是要找活?可以。简历写的好吗?这事要花点时间,少则4小时,多则一两天。不要第一个offer就收,想好自己要做什么,老板如何,能学到什么?钱是小,前途是大。

Good luck.

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Beijing Chestnuts

A Beijing friend visited us yesterday. She brought two bags of roasted chestnuts. We celebrated.

Traditionally, chestnuts are roasted in a bed of hot sands, coarse, more like fine gravels. Vendors mix sugar and sands into a roasting pan and heat it up lowly. For the whole day, they fold the sands/chestnut with a wooden spatula. The warmth and the aroma, a bit burnt sugar and lots of chestnut fragrance, will draw a crowd. They will wait patiently for the vendor to declare the batch ready. Then the next batch starts.

The arts are in the temperature control, proportion of the sugar, and, of course, the selection of the chestnuts. At a glance, the concoction is similar to coffee roasting: a big bowl of black substance flowing circularly and continuously over heat and radiating irresistible aroma.

QiuLiXiang (秋栗香) has perfected this art. This street corner vendor managed to maintain at least half-an-hour’s queue during its entire business day pretty much everyday. Most people buy several bags, US$1.50 for 500 grams, enough as a meal. Once in a while, someone will take 20 bags, load them into a car, and disappeared into the busy street.

We attacked those two bags with concentration and ferocity. Quickly, fingers get sticky from the sweet lightly coated on the shells, nostrils filled with the roast aroma, and mouths filled to the point that conversation stopped. Hot tea, Chinese, goes well with them.

If you are in Beijing, go to 地安门西大街2号. Remember to bring a company, the wait can be long.

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$100 for Everyone

Taiwan, that small island of 22 million people, issued about US$100 for every citizens: man, woman, child, baby. If you exist on the government’s census record (that is kept pretty much up-to-date all the time), you get $100.

Not cash, though. It is a government issued coupon with an expiration date. It is a legal tender for anything retail: foods, clothes, appliance, services, etc. Banks do not accept them for deposit. The merchants cancel them and redeem cash from the government.

Simply put, Taiwan government added $2.5 billions money to the circulation and guaranteed that they will come back quickly.

The retailers fought for coupon business with massive advertisements and deep discounts. All of the sudden, malls, stores, and restaurants are packed with customers. Great discounts, free money, and expiration date formed an effective stimulus for consumption. Citizens are patriotic and leaned unproportionally to local brands. Government projected the GDP to increased by 0.64% with this stimulus package.

That was immediate, short-term, and effective. It was well calculated and planned. There is no risk of corruption or waste. Well done, Taiwan.

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Stimulated

“Sin-Yaw, I won the lottery!” She sat down across my desk. “I had a 2nd on my house and went refinancing for a lower rate. The bank said it was too risky and just wrote it off.”

“YOU? Got the bail-out money?” I asked.

“YEESS.” She waltzed out of my office and left me thinking of this stimulus package.

If someone borrowed money and use it wisely, the debt would generate future income that pays back the loan and more. Otherwise, the borrower simply ends up poorer. This is the golden rule. No getting around it.

If the government borrows money, John Maynard Keynes said it is different. If the citizens spend them away, the consumption whirl into virtuous cycle and multiply the wealth many times over. Don’t buy imports, however, since then the money then becomes part of their virtuous cycle and the citizens just ended up poorer.

The government can also invest on infra-structure that boosts everyone’s productivity. Extra productivity means more wealth to pay back those debts. The pitfalls are those wasteful projects, such as the infamous bridge to nowhere, that do not really improve productivity.

If neither happens, the debts translate into inflation: more money and same productivity equal higher prices. Inflation discourages savings, punishes the most vulnerable, and ends up impoverishing everyone. Inflation also happens in the future. The next generation pays, with no choice and much bitterness. Or they can borrow against their offspring and thus enter the vicious cycle.

Only two would lend money to our government: yourselves or foreigners. Which one will forgive the debts? If the USA is bailing out its society, who bails out the USA? I guess it is OK anyway. Our kids will figure it out.

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Perpetual Rooster Coop

The White Tiger

Aravind Adiga

Simon & Schuster Adult Publishing Group
October 2008
ISBN-13: 9781416562603

A handful of men in this country have trained the remaining 99.9 percent to exist in perpetual servitude.

The winner of 2009 Man Booker Prize, White Tiger is widely reviewed and Aravind Adiga’s first novel. The story captivates and flows. After a few chapters, I decided that it does not fit any genre. Mr. Adiga skillfully mixed rags-to-rich, coming-of-age, Indian cultural, social classes struggle, or even murder/suspense. Balram’s growth, education, struggles, and decisions felt real and touching.

I have been to India, Bangalore in particular, a few times. I have many Indian friends and work with even more. Aravind’s India feels real and brought back many memories from my years living in China. The slums, open sewage, the very poor, and the struggle just to survive are all very similar. The paragraph quoted in the beginning seems to be the key difference between China and India. Most Chinese pursue self autonomy zealously, maybe a bit too much.

The other one being the parliamentary democracy. During my years in China, I gradually developed the philosophy that democracy is a hindrance to progress for poor countries. Only until the GDP per capita has reached a certain level should they democratize. Good thing I never studied political science and have no need to prove this philosophy to be right.

I always cringe on English books or movies on China. The linguistic barrier forces all points to be shallow, to a Chinese. I don’t know how would Indians feel about this book. It certainly resonates more for those who know a bit about India. Its sales record indicates the popularity among non-Indians, just like Slumdog Millionaire.

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Happy Year of the Ox

My 4th blog on on Chinese New Year. I reflected back when the years of Rat, Pig, and Dog came. This is a tradition now.

A Chinese cycle, similar concept to century, is 60 years. This coming one is the 26th year in the 79th cycle or year 4707 from the epoch. This Ox is earthy (not golden, as many commercials would imply). There is really no real astrological significance to the earthiness of this Ox. Its effects depends on your own astrological chart and impossible to generalize.

2008 turned out to be an extreme fortunate year for me. I made many risky decisions. The largest one is to leave China. Even prescience wouldn’t have time that move better. Sun and global economy free fell after summer and Juniper was among the very few that are standing strong. I have my family together, a very rewarding job, in reasonable health, and living in the best climate area in the world. Thankful, I am to the divinity.

The 2nd half of 2008 has been eventful, a bit too much. I moved twice: once back to the US, the 2nd time to the permanent house. Monty, my pet dog, had a scare surgery that saved his life. Juniper tested my mettle with a vengeance. I watched Olympics from a distance and through the US TV set. I witnessed probably the most entertaining presidential election in recent history: Hilary’s politicking, Palin’s comics, McCain’s perseverance, and, of course, Obama’s inspiration. Honestly, there is a bit of withdrawal effect when the whole thing was over.

This year of Ox promises to be an exciting one, probably not less eventful. I so look forward to it.


歲次己丑 萬事如意.

傷感的離開北京,一群人的訝異,”為什麼離開遍地黃金的中國?”其實傷感的,是離開了那群朋友,和那些可愛的年輕人.下個牛年,他們都會是中國的精英.在呼天喚雨時,不知會不會回想當年的北京.

這個牛年可會精采了.新總統,新氣象.經濟也該回酥了.女兒再離家唸書,我們二度空巢.也步入知命的人生階段.”知命”! 從沒好好想過這兩字.我知道我的”天命”了嗎?

Posted in China, Witness to my life | Tagged , | 1 Comment