Vaccination Decision

I have a very strong position on this question. But this blog is not about the medical merits of vaccination. It is about risk assessment and decision making.

We human beings are not capable of evaluating very small probabilities. For example, if I offer you the choice of a lottery ticket that has a 0.0001% chance of winning $100 million or $50 dollar cash. Which would you choose? If, instead, I try to sell you that ticket, how much would you pay for it?

The majority of the people will not make the mathematically correct decision. (Go ahead, ask someone.)

Let’s assume that getting the vaccination carries a risk that’s harmful to the children (or self). But not getting the vaccination carries the risk of getting infected. Since one must make a decision on this matter, the rational call is to choose the less one. The argument of “it could be harmful to my children” is not rational, unless it is “more harmful than my children getting infected.” Since both risks are extremely small. Some of the brains got lost and chose wrongly.

In making decisions that involve extremely small probability (less than 0.1%). First arrive the correct decision mathematically. Next use emotions, examples, or other human perceivable forms to persuade the constituents; never numbers. Unless, of course, that your audience is all scientists, engineers, or robots.

The ticket is worth $100. So, take the lottery ticket unless the cash is more than $100, or pay for it if the price is less.

Get the facts straight for all matters first. When in doubt, use Occam’s Razor, select the side that made the fewest assumptions.

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