Flu of China

The knocking on the door was unexpected and therefore not a good thing. Three people in Hazmat-like protective gears is even a worse sign. He felt perfectly healthy, only jet-lagged. But that passenger, two rows behind him and slept all the way from San Francisco to Beijing, turned out to be a confirmed infectee. They took him directly to GuoMenLu Hotel, near the airport, for a week’s quarantine. None of his 250 fellow quarantined can have any direct contact with anyone else in that hotel.

That’s a true story. My friend told me that it happened to someone who knew his friend.

2002, I needed to hire many in Beijing. We bought publicity to attract local applicants. We signed up interviewers, a dozen or so, and geared up to fly them to Beijing. Hundreds of candidates were ready. The entourage from the USA was ready. Everything was ready for my recruiting blitz. We were excited with anticipation.

SARS! State department issued a travel advisory, company banned all trips to China, the big plan fell apart. We scrambled to execute plan B and eventually hired nearly 100 people in 4 months.

Early 2006, bird flu was the new SARS and I began my 2nd year in Beijing. An employee urged me to stockpile Tamiflu and prepared for an evacuation plan. I assured him that China government will protect Beijing with all their resources. I also insisted that the company plan must work for all employees, China- or US-citizen. Most in China were not paranoid. In fact, bird flu was an oblivious shrug, a stark contrast to SARS.

Last year, when I was packing to leave China, I found the box of US-made, medical-grade masks. The whole box was completely forgotten during those 3 years. I gave the box to a friend and joked, “You may need this for the next flu pandemic.”

Wherever the origin, swine flu has sieged China. The number of new cases is growing exponentially. The government admitted that they are losing control. They expect a bad summer followed by a worse winter.

Is it a pattern that a pandemic threat comes every two to three years? SARS and bird flu both killed, but really only very few, compared to, say, normal flu, traffic accidents, diabetes, obesity, smoking, or cancer. This horribly feared swine flu has killed negligibly number of people. Statistically, it should not have attract any media attention at all.

The pattern predicts a new flu pandemic threat — not real, just a threat — in a couple of years. Since we have already dealth with birds and pigs, next time it would be an animal that’s even closer to people. Get ready. Dog flu comes winter of 2012. It won’t be curable and it won’t kill either. A good scare, it guarantees.