Impossible Dreams

Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed Jared Diamond ISBN: 978-0670033379 Pub. Date: December 29, 2004 Publisher: Viking Adult

After Guns, Germs, and Steel, I became a Jared Diamond fan. Several people told me about this book and I bought a copy almost immediately.
Collapse popped to the top of my reading queue around Christmas of 2006. I have taken it onto several cross-Pacific trips. It is not a fast-paced book and I cannot digest many pages at a time. This book impressed me deeply. It joined my conversations all the time.

I highly recommend it. Even that I don't agree with it.

Mr. Diamond presented undisputed evidences that led to compelling conclusions. But what point is this tome that, realistically, offers no fair or humane solutions? It is clear that Mr. Diamond wanted the world, particularly the political leaders, particularly those in the US, to change. But he positioned himself as a scientist. In that, he lacked imagination and inspirations. Maybe, just perhaps, that alternative endings are possible, human beings are more ingenious, or we just don't want to be depressed?

He also tore a rift, maybe unintentionally, between the first and third worlds.

The world is not enough. Fixed resources are depleted. Renewable ones are over-farmed, over-logged, or over-fished to exhaustion. When the world becomes not enough, wars happen. Americans are not going to let gasoline price go up to $50 per gallon. There will be military actions before that. War is a effective tool for population control and may just be the only solution.

But maybe it is big enough? Although fossil fuels are not, energy is really renewable. (We won't go into the 2nd law of thermodynamics here.) Can human come up with clean, safe, and virtually inexhaustible energy sources? Nuclear! With that, cars can be 100% electrical.

Well, the world will either collapse by nuclear wars or by other wars. We just have to deal with this. The fissure between first and third worlds takes the form of trade conflicts, immigration control, or simply violence. Not using our resources efficiently, for fear of violence, makes the violence more likely.

How about food supplies? Jared Diamond argued on two main points: it is not economical to produce certain foods in certain areas; and the world is not big enough to feed its population. Islanders should not raise cattle, Australians not sheep, (and Californian not rice.) People should eat what is most economical for them to produce. Otherwise, their environment will be irreversibly damaged. I actually agree with him here. Removal of trade barriers will take care of this.

Jared's 2nd point is, again, about population control. But I simply cannot accept the scarcity of food. News channels cover more on obesity than hunger. The world is turning organic that shuns genetically modified species, pesticides, and fertilizers —- essentially making the land less productive. All hunger problems seem to be either man-made or from natural disasters. The warning that we are all going hungry does not find resonance in me.

The world is mostly oceans. If we have solved the energy problem, we have solved the fresh water problem. Desalinization is economical if we have cheap and clean energy. Geo-engineers, armed with the same energy sources, may actually solve the global warming problem too.

China pledged it renewed effort to curb energy consumption, strongly hinting the pursuit of GDP growth is not an excuse to waste energy. Cheer up, Jared. There is hope. Scaring people is not the only option.