Greg Linden, an ACM blogger, recently asked if the war on spam has been won. He wrote,

Today, e-mail spam appears to be a solved problem. A 2003 study External Link put response rates at 0.005%. A 2008 study External Link where the authors infiltrated a major spam botnet found response rates had fallen to under 0.00001%, only 28 sales out of 350 million messages sent. Spam filters appear to have forced down response rates three orders of magnitude in five years. Spammers have fought back with misspellings, adding additional text to mails, trying to customize each e-mail sent, and many other tricks to evade detection, but their increasingly complicated efforts have not been able to outwit the filters.

Similarly, Daniel Hamermesh, a Freakonomic Blogger, wondered where are his Viagra spam.

I haven’t gotten one of these in a year, after often getting several a day. I assume that the spammers realized that the return per period of time the price of the activity was less than its marginal cost: the opportunity cost of their time. They have shut down the business and moved to other activities that might yield higher returns.

Today, over 90% of the messages a typical company receives are spam. Bigger companies or government agencies get more than 98%. Spam is the AIDS of email. There are some effective treatments, but it is far from being eradicated.

Seen the movie You Got Mail? Everybody likes to to receive messages. They publicize their email addresses to get more messages. They register for services, subscribe to mailing lists, or comment on public sites. They also participate various forwarding schemes, like chain letters, memes, and many urban legends. Was it was great to get the free dinner coupon at the nice restaurant?

Statistics makes the problem difficult. With today’s spam volume, a 99.8% capture rate gives a typical user less than one spam message a day. When the capture rate is 99.6%, a mere 0.2% decrease, half of the inbox will be spam.

Only economy will win the war on spam. As long as sending email is free, there will always be spam. Before that changes, demand your ISP to have a quality spam blocker. Make sure your company stop spam at the gate. Strengthen your defense with a good email client that has a spam filter. Lastly, before yelling at your spam solution provider, check if you actually asked for those messages yourself. Try as they might, those software engineers cannot know that you changed your mind and don’t want the restaurant promotions anymore, at least not until you are in the mood for a nice juicy steak again.

]]> http://www.nomadicminds.org/blogs/2010/08/31/war-on-spam/feed/ http://www.nomadicminds.org/blogs/2010/08/24/%e5%a6%82%e6%9e%9c%e4%bd%a0%e5%b7%b2%e7%b6%9320%e6%ad%b2%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%a0%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e8%bc%b8%e4%b8%8d%e8%b5%b7%e4%ba%86/ http://www.nomadicminds.org/blogs/2010/08/24/%e5%a6%82%e6%9e%9c%e4%bd%a0%e5%b7%b2%e7%b6%9320%e6%ad%b2%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%a0%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e8%bc%b8%e4%b8%8d%e8%b5%b7%e4%ba%86/#comments Wed, 25 Aug 2010 07:00:40 +0000 sinyaw http://www.nomadicminds.org/blogs/?p=1438 傳聞李開復的文章,真是洛陽紙貴.網上流傳不止.Google一下,不難找到轉載. 年輕的被說的心悸,過來人看得心有戚戚焉.

同樣的文章,古今中外,歷史上有了幾千版了.李開復的威力,在他的踏實,明確.(但李本人說這文章不是他寫的.) 幾句:

如果你20歲以後所花的每一分錢還都是伸手向父母親人要來的，那你的滿身名牌就只能襯托出你的無恥.

不要與浪子，文藝青年交往，別和沒心沒肺的人在一起，別和沒有正當職業混日子的人在一起.

說穿了,要務實獨立,不要夢幻痛苦,也別想一步登天.

但真想想,沒有幾個天才20歲就念完書了.基本的大學文憑要22歲.這一代近30才走出校園的,比比皆是.我大慨可以接受把他寫的加個10歲.三十以前,人追求的是應該是理想及愛情.在那追求的過程中,年輕人走過那世世代代都走過的路,才站立成人.沒有那段夢幻痛苦,怎麼破繭成蝶?

人的成長歷程,一定有一段是在找自己.找到後,才可能走下一步.過來人看到下一代的歷程會心疼,”能不能聽話,別去找了,你就在這兒.” 很不幸,每一代都必須過這關.

每一代,都有一群過不了這關. 那就是被時代淘汰掉的一群. 如果自己的孩子在那群裏,當然心疼. 看到明明有天分的被淘汰,也心疼. 那些孩子,只要聽話,就能好好的,多可惜.

其實,不聽話的年輕人,當然淘汰率高.但把人類推到新高的偉人,也是年輕時不聽話的那群.

順其自然吧!

When RFID was a in rave, I predicted that one day each of us will carry several on us all the time: in the shoes, glasses, sewed into the clothes, or even implanted into our body as part of some medical devices like artificial joint or pace maker. Since each of them can be traced and kept in databases, the collection of those RFIDs can statistically identify a person as surely as his genome, fingerprint, or retina scan.

How do we know this person is Mrs. Jones? Well, she carries all three RFIDs that were implanted into Mrs. Jones: an hip joint replacement, a pace maker, and a insulin pump. There is no need for any other IDs. How do we know that kid is her son? Let’s see, we have previously seen him 15 times and collected 250 RFIDs during those encounters. This person carries 7 of those 250 RFIDs. Statistically, we are over 99% certain that is the boy.

With RFID, who needs facial recognition?

It was a nice fantasy and a wrong one. Almost a decade passed and the great RFID revolution never came. Today, I carry zero with me. The sophisticated software system I dreamed is nowhere to be found. Then I moved to Washington State and got my Enhanced Driver License.

This thing is part of the West Hemisphere Travel Initiative. It has a built-in RFID so that I can, theoretically, zip through custom without evening taking it out of my wallet. To get one, all I have to do is make an appointment at the local DOL (Department of Licensing) office, show my passport and California driver license, and stare into a vision exam box. No “knowledge test” was required. Too bad it works only for crossing the borders via land or sea, but not air. I can drive or sail to Canada with this EDL, but not by airplane.

Honestly, I do not know if the slightly more expensive EDL offers any real benefit over the simple driver license. If I had an existing WA license, I would probably not bother to upgrade, but since I will have to make a trip to the DOL, I thought I might as well get an enhanced one. After all, don’t we all want something that is enhanced?

Barnes and Noble gave us lots of joy when the kids were growing up. Our normal source of books was the library. Each trip meant scarily large book bags filled to the brink each way. Unlike the library, Barnes and Noble had new books! Kids would buy books that they have already read. The new books that they can keep forever were so exciting.

The Harry Potter series brought memorable years associated with Barnes and Noble. We would wait for a few days for the crowd to thin down. Then there was the pre-determined reading order: younger daughter would devour the book first, older one followed, and daddy, the slowest reader, last. Kids would wait, in patient agony, for me to finish before talking about it. We all obeyed the code: never ruin someone’s good read.

Exploring the aisles was a joy. I would stroll over to the geeky sections: SciFi, software, managerial, woodworking, gaming, etc. They would disappear into the fiction area or the stationary corner. We would all linger at the bargain bins, calendars, greeting cards, book lights, bookmarks, etc. In Beijing and Taipei, where online book ordering is less popular, I went to the giant bookstores (王府井書店, 外文書店, 誠品) just to relive the exploration. (Look. There is the Chinese chess session. Give me a minute.)

Amazon changed everything. Gone are the days we scrutinized the jacket, read several pages, and took a gambit to invest part of our lives into a book. We no longer discover books. We manage our reading lists. Reading used to be about getting lost into another world. Amazon made that world a bit smaller. That’s really why the business of Barnes and Noble, and all other bookstores, declined. Collectively, people spent less to explore the world of books. The value of aisles diminished.

If Border’s experience repeats, Barnes and Noble won’t find a buyer. Like music and movies, the ink-based industry needs to transform into something else. No doubt I will experience this transformation. In the mean time, I will click on my browser and refill my reading queue.

Didn’t Adam Smith teach us that the other side will pursue their own self interest? For centuries, we designed complicated incentives based on this teaching. The highest form of governance, or business, is to use the invisible hand to direct wealth to the right places. People, or countries, should be selfish. That’s how it works, at least for western civilizations and MNCs (Multi-National Corporations).

James Mann, from The New Republic blog, has been surprised at how surprised western corporations were when they found out that China seems less open than 15 years ago.

The logic seems painfully obvious. China wants exactly what western countries and corporations want and had: prosperity and influence. They will make their own short- and long-term trade-offs as they see most optimal for themselves. Being open worked very well for the past 30 years, for China. It works less well now, therefore they are less open now.

China has a plan for itself. If western countries and corporations fit that plan, they will be welcome with open arms. Otherwise, not. Their policies and rules are unpredictable only to those blind to this simple logic.

For MNCs, there are only two viable China strategies. The short-term strategy is to exploit whatever natural resources and profit from them. The natural resources of interest are mainly the cheap labor, cheap land, and the lenient environmental laws. MNCs should exit whenever those natural resources become expensive, or inconvenient. (It is curious for me to observe that people will protest that China is polluting the world while shopping at WalMart, Target, or Sears.)

The long-term strategy is to treat China as a market and try to sell into it. Since the fundamental concept is trading, the transactions must have sufficient incentives to both sides. Clearly western corporations want profits. If China wants the same, then we have a built-in zero-sum conflict. China side will tolerate an in-balance for the short-term, but will eventually reverse it.

So the secret to the success is really quite simple. Answer the question, “What’s in for China?”

The Big Picture blog, one of my favorites, showed stunning pictures. This is one of them.

This reminds me all those millions of migrant workers that built modern China. This is a country that millions usually just shut-up and do the jobs. They come home dirty, tired, still poor, and with the jobs done. Farmers, in every countries, are like that. They go out in the morning, do a day’s hard works, and come home at the end of the day. Jobs were done, no need to talk about it. Let’s just eat and have a drink to that.

What really made modern China!

February 10, 2009
978-0812977875

Free market will drive out bigotry, since prejudice is inferior and will eventually lose to the competition. This is, however, a long-term view. For a quick bet, it is statistically better to hire from a historically advantaged group, since the chances of getting a good talent is higher. Yes, this is a form of discrimination, since the decision is not based on individual merit — college grads are not necessarily smarter, men are not always stronger, young is not always more energetic — but statistically they are and the bet frequently pays off. The discrimination is economically rational.

At the same time, human beings strongly like to “belong.” We need to have relatives, friends, and social networks that are rich and supporting. This innate desire pushes us to “fit in” — trying to conform to a norm. For some, this desire drags those youngsters into gang, violence, drugs, teen pregnancy, or simply not academically outstanding. Those who tried to thrive in school became lonely or, worse, shunned from the peer group.

Tim Hartford explained, as above, that discrimination is rational. He was not defending the behavior, but suggested that the reversal requires much stronger incentives. It is depressing to be convinced that discrimination actually pays. It is also politically wrong to state so. I cannot imagine the hate mail he gets from publishing this book.

Tim also explained that politics is about minority interest, not the other way around. For a politician to be elected, he or she must win votes that matter. It pays to spread costs to a large population to reward a smaller group that swing the outcome of an election. All politicians have campaigned to tax the largest population to benefit a concentrated small group of people that matter to his or her election. None of them would champion the real worthy causes, since they won’t concentrate the benefits to the minority that win elections. There will be little hope for global warming, world economy, world peace, etc.

Yep, depressing.

Two days prior, two strangers turned my 20+ years four-bedroom house into boxes. One day prior, 4 strong men vanished those boxes into a big truck. Weeks before, we started making frequent trips to Goodwill, local library, recycling center, or the dump.

A friend came by to bid farewell. She moved five years ago to a faraway place. When the big truck left, she said she cried uncontrollably in that empty house. Sadness is the emotion caused by a big lost. What do you lose when you move away from a place? You lose that warm feeling that you knew where everything is, where your friends are, and how to get anything done. You knew that it will take you a long time, if ever, to regain them in the new place.

The severing of ties to a house is like a limb from the body. It is not just a place you raised the family. It is the anchor to many emotional investments: friendships, remodeling, tears, sweats, and blood. Memories have permeated into those walls like roots grabbing onto the earth. Re-potting can be necessary to the growth, but it hurts.

The rented SUV rolled over 900 miles of asphalt before we arrived the the two-bedroom in this city. Dog kept on marking the new territory, as I tried to learn the neighborhood. This is as primal as it can be.

A week later, three strangers came in a big truck and turned my apartment into a sea of boxes. The boxes will disappear into this new home: my new home.

Last time I was here, it was literally hell. Furious blaze swept through the land and ended all lives in its path. The smoke was so thick that I cannot see the Grand Teton when I stood right in front of them. We escaped Yellowstone, choking, as the park was closing down. Later, it was known to be the fire of 1988.

Today, many 22-year-old skeleton trees still stand silently, some long ago fell. Saplings spawn among tall grasses, some young trees have reached about half of their ancestors’ height. Had we known that trees took so long to regenerate, would we have “let it burn” then?

Bison addiction was powerful and contagious. People will stop the car, jump off, and start snapping pictures whenever a bison come in-sight. This fever became uncontrollable when a herd of several hundred decided to come enjoy the sun in Hayden Valley. Old, young, male, and female bison were everywhere and literally stood in the middle of the road posing for those cameras and camcorders. If the rangers weren’t shooing people, they would try to pet those bison.

Deer, Black Bear, Grizzly, and possibly a Coyote we also saw. Moose definitely not and Elk was questionable, too far to tell. Whoever planning on a visit should bring a pair of high-power binoculars or a serious telescopic lens.

Beside Old Faithful, Yellowstone is good for at least two to three days of just sightseeing and light hiking. There are the upper and lower falls at the Grand Canyon (of Yellowstone), the Terrace at the Mammoth Hot Spring, and many geysers close to Old Faithful. The Yellowstone Lake is beautiful and offers many boating and water activities. For those who are serious hikers, horse-back riders, or bikers, then this park can easily fill a week’s time. Reserve the lodging probably a year early. As far as I can tell, only the Old Faithful area has cell phone reception. I did not see a TV anywhere and probably no Internet either.

Yet this is also a serious business. Gordon Ramsey owns those restaurants and needs the best person in the kitchen. He first looks for raw talents — people who know foods and can produce expensive and highly desirable dishes. Next he needs organization skills. In a Michelin restaurant, all foods must arrive the table at the same time; something that requires military level precision. I believe he is also looking for someone who is creative and manageable too. He wants a colonel, not a general.

TV or not, what would be the best method to select such talent?

First use high-pressure basic training to weed out those who do not have the raw skills. At the same time, the candidates learn the system: station assignment, services preparation, and, most importantly, quality expectation and processes. This period ends when half of them were out.

He then turns his attention to leadership and organization skills. He also observes their drives and competitiveness. Gordon wants a field commander that can win battles.

At the end, he gives the finalists the blank canvas: create their own menu that best show-off their skills. This step is critical since restaurants must delight patrons to keep their loyalty.

At all time, the pressure is kept high for two reasons: it boost TV rating and it amplifies weakness.

By season 7, all contestants knew the rules of the game well. We can observe their strategies — against each others and Mr. Ramsey. Of course, we all are picking our favorites and predicting the outcome. I got hooked by this reality show last season. Like his restaurants, Mr. Ramsey probably needs some new ideas for the show, otherwise, I am not sure how many more seasons it will last.